Downstream solder, electronics, and home appliance enterprises, constrained by high prices, only maintained just-in-time procurement. Trading in the spot market was sluggish. [SMM Tin Spot Market Brief Comment]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract (SN2506) for May 15, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued to fluctuate at highs. It opened slightly higher in the night session at 265,480 yuan/mt and remained range-bound, closing at 265,210 yuan/mt in the daytime session, up 0.22% from the previous day. The five-day cumulative gain narrowed to 1.43%. Open interest decreased slightly to 30,500 lots, with market trading activity remaining neutral to weak and capital competition intensifying. Bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war over the logic of "short-term tight balance vs. easing in the long term," with the reduction in open interest indicating disagreement among investors.

Ongoing Disruptions in the Ore Sector: The production resumptions at the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are progressing smoothly, with the first batch of tin concentrates shipped on May 9 and expected to enter the smelting process in June. The production resumption process in Myanmar's Wa region is clear, but actual output growth will still take time. The TCs for 40% tin concentrates in Yunnan remain at historically low levels. Smelters in Jiangxi are experiencing low operating rates due to insufficient scrap tin recovery, with some capacity potentially exiting the market permanently.

Signals of Easing in the Long Term: With the daily average production at the Bisie mine gradually recovering, coupled with the advancement of production resumptions in the Wa region, the supply of tin concentrates may gradually ease in Q3, limiting the upside room for tin prices.

Sluggish Spot Transactions: Downstream solder, electronics, and home appliance enterprises, constrained by high prices, are only making just-in-time procurements, with no significant increase in orders. Emerging demand from PV welding strips, semiconductor packaging, and other sectors remains resilient but is insufficient to offset the weakness in traditional sectors.

Risk Alerts: Unexpectedly rapid production resumptions in overseas ore sectors, shifts in macro policies, and escalating geopolitical conflicts.